JGWeissman comments on Is Rationality Maximization of Expected Value? - Less Wrong

-23 Post author: AnlamK 22 September 2010 11:16PM

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Comment author: mattnewport 23 September 2010 12:03:16AM 19 points [-]

Suppose someone offers you a (single trial) gamble A in which you stand to gain 100k dollars with probability 0.99 and stand to lose 100M dollars with probability 0.01. Even though expectation is -98999000 dollars, you should still take the gamble since the probability of winning on a single trial is very high - 0.99 to be exact.

If I can find another 99 people as confused as you I'll be a rich man.

Comment author: JGWeissman 23 September 2010 12:06:26AM 3 points [-]

If I can find another 99 people as confused as you I'll be a rich man.

You would also need them to have $100M available to lose.

Comment author: mattnewport 23 September 2010 12:07:11AM 5 points [-]

You would also need them to have $100M available to lose.

That is a weakness with my plan.

Comment author: b1shop 23 September 2010 12:08:40AM 2 points [-]

Oh well. Fold the plan into your back pocket and wait for hyperinflation.

Comment author: AdeleneDawner 28 September 2010 06:28:20AM 0 points [-]

Or just drop a few zeroes off of the numbers and do it now, as if you'd come up with the idea a couple hundred years ago and the inflation up to this point counts as 'hyper'.

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