Will_Sawin comments on Is Rationality Maximization of Expected Value? - Less Wrong
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I don't think the key issue is the imperfect Bayesianism of humans. I suppose that the discussed certainty of a probability has a lot to do with its dependence on priors - the more sensitive the probability is to change in priors we find arbitrary, the less certain it feels. Priors themselves feel most uncertain, while probabilities obtained from evidence-based calculations, especially those quasi-frequentist probabilities, as P(heads in next flip), depend on many priors and change in any single prior doesn't move them too far. Perfect Bayesians may not have the feeling, but still have priors.
Sensitivity to priors is the same as sensitivity to new evidence. And when we're sensitive to new evidence, our estimates are likely to change, which is another reason they're uncertain.
The reason this phenomena occurs is because we are uncertain about some fundamental frequency, or a model more complex than a simple frequency model, and probability(heads|frequency of heads is x)=x.