JamesAndrix comments on (Virtual) Employment Open Thread - Less Wrong

35 Post author: Will_Newsome 23 September 2010 04:25AM

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Comment author: toner 24 September 2010 12:06:06AM *  12 points [-]

I hear that everywhere too. It's a selection effect: most of the population aren't smart and rational enough to be long-term winning players and it's these people you hear complaining, while the good players go on quietly winning.

It's definitely true that the games are getting tougher every year, because the community is learning to play better, so the threshold of ability you need to be a winning player is constantly increasing. But it's not that high yet.

Now let's talk about your two bugbears, bots and collusion.

1. Bots

You never ever have to worry about bots. The goal in poker is to seek out and play against bad players, while tolerating the presence of good players. It's completely irrelevant whether these players are controlled by humans, machines, or some combination. (In practice, except possibly for heads-up limit hold'em, good players are still better than the best bots published in the academic literature anyway.)

2. Collusion

This is something you have to worry about, but in practice it's not that big a deal, especially if you play at low limits, where it's not going to be worth the bother for competent players to collude. There have been only a handful of times when I've suspected collusion online, in which case, the obvious response was to stop playing against those players. Sometimes collusion can be detected statistically, but if some collusion does go undetected, as long as you're winning, what does it matter?

Comment author: JamesAndrix 24 September 2010 12:29:59AM 5 points [-]

Isn't the obvious strategy then to create a set of colluding bots, and try to avoid detection?

Comment author: toner 24 September 2010 12:39:07AM *  5 points [-]

Go ahead! But it's hard.

Comment author: Aleksei_Riikonen 24 September 2010 07:24:01AM 1 point [-]

If someone wants to do it, I btw could offer useful advice, including almost-finished algorithms on how the bot could play profitably.

Haven't done it myself, but have looked into it. Stopped short of doing the boring stuff of coding some stuff up (I don't really do programming), and of course there's also the ethical question of whether I want to screw over pokersites. But it certainly can be done, and I think I've already done the parts that could be hard (mostly, coming up with a winning play style that is sufficiently algorithmic).

(BTW, even good bots currently don't beat good or even mediocre players in most poker variations, but bots can make money playing against bad players, which are abundant.)

Comment author: Douglas_Knight 24 September 2010 04:26:08PM *  0 points [-]

I think I've already done the parts that could be hard (mostly, coming up with a winning play style that is sufficiently algorithmic).

Have you checked with other people about what they think is hard?
Why don't you think it's hard to evade detection, by the opponents, the resident software, and the server? (ETA: and were you looking into collusion? do you worry about the signature there?)

Comment author: Aleksei_Riikonen 24 September 2010 06:02:52PM 2 points [-]

I have talked with people who are currently running bots. Most pokersites btw don't actually really even bother much to detect bots, since driving them out isn't in their interest unless human players start complaining.

I'm probably not going to publicly comment more than this on this topic.