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utilitymonster comments on Politics as Charity - Less Wrong
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Thanks for writing this, Carl. I'm going to post a link in the GWWC forum.
Here are some papers you should add to your bibliography, if you haven't already:
What is the Probability Your Vote Will Make a Difference? Voting as a Rational Choice
In the first paper, his probability estimate is 1 in 60 million on average for a voter in a US presidential election, 1 in 10 million in the best cases (New Mexico, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Colorado).
If you focused on the best case, that could mean an order of magnitude for you.
Thanks utilitymonster. As it happens, they're already in the draft for the next post following this one.