TobyBartels comments on Politics as Charity - Less Wrong

29 Post author: CarlShulman 23 September 2010 05:33AM

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Comment author: Vladimir_Nesov 23 September 2010 05:56:55AM *  6 points [-]

She estimates that she has a 1 in 1,000,000 chance of casting the deciding vote

Why is this not a confusion? It seems on the face of it that since voters' decisions are correlated, your decision accounts for behavior of other people as well, and so you are not only casting one vote with your decision, but many votes simultaneously.

Comment author: TobyBartels 23 September 2010 12:30:43PM 1 point [-]

If you acausally influence other people to vote, you'll also acausally influence them to spend time doing so. (And since they're like you, their time is as valuable as yours.) To a first approximation, the expected cost and benefit are proportional to the naïve (ignoring acausal influence) estimate. So the question of whether it's worth the effort should come out the same.

Comment author: Vladimir_Nesov 23 September 2010 01:57:46PM 0 points [-]

Other people's time is not as valuable as yours (to you).