I don't think this should be downvoted (was at -2 when I wrote this). I generally downvote only those things that are either trolling or that will have the same effect because the discussion will spiral in horribly non-truthy directions. This comment seems to me like it is a legitimate question, with a legitimate answer, that may lead to productive plans for the future.

The question is legitimate because UDT/TDT/etc are concepts that are basically novel to LW but that we would hope could be developed to the point of practical utility if LW is going to be shine in some way other than being a popularizing mechanism for academic research.

The answer follows from the same thinking that explains why the question is legitimate.

With classical decision theory you're basically just trying to figure out the costs and benefits of multiple options with some uncertainty mixed in. Then you pick the one that adds up to "the best thing". The formal math basically exhorts you to simply perform numerical multi-pronged due diligence which most people don't do for most things but that "decision theory" can encourage them to do in a structured way. It gives them a research keyword to get lots of advice about methodology and also lets them know that being meticulous and planful about important choices is honestly likely to lead to better outcomes in some circumstance (where the value of information can even be estimated, no less).

Just getting that slight improvement in process might end up making a huge difference because the sanity waterline really is that low.

But at the present time, I don't have any clue what what practical steps someone would perform if they were going to implement either TDT or UDT for practical personal or philanthropic benefit. Look up dollar values? Try and find probabilistic estimates of impact? But that stuff is simply the traditional way to go about such things and doesn't require one to invoke a new decision theory, and so the concept doesn't pay rent in utility if deploying it just means "doing the same thing other theories with better known names already endorsed".

So to add in the new aspects of our novel decision theory we're supposed to... um... look up the source code of voters? And then somehow emulate it? If the state of the world is uncertain do we need to run different emulations and average them to factor out the uncertainty? And do we completely ignore the other data that it seemed like basic prudence to gather, or do we integrate it with a formula somehow? On a spreadsheet? Using some python script we hack up? Are we going to have to hire a programmer with monte-carlo simulation experience to figure this out? Do we need to rent some super-computer time?

Its just not clear what "mental algorithm" should be performed if we're going to gainfully apply a novel decision theory of the sort we've been kicking around in LW, completely leaving aside having an algorithm we can actually perform on paper the way we can calculate stock valuations using simple accounting rules to find the starting point and playing with estimates of the growth of total cash versus total stock.

And since "perfect is the enemy of good enough", and "good enough is the enemy of at all", and optimal philanthropy efforts don't seem to have been paying attention to the arena of politics basically at all (probably due to mindkiller processes that people in this community can appreciate) Carl's approach seems to me like the best way to get at low hanging fruit.

In the meantime, I think it would be really cool to find practical applications of UDT/TDT to real world situations (like maybe, answering the question "Does this dress make me look fat?" or figuring out when and how to fire someone you like but who is doing a terrible job) that can be worked out as "examples for the text book" showing how to take a given "word problem" through a data gathering stage and into an algorithmic "plug and chug" stage.

Until TDT/UDT has been spelled out in such brutal simplicity that I can read about it, do some practice until I acquire the theory grounded ability to notice when I'm doing well or poorly and judge myself to be doing it well, and then teach a patient 12 year old with an IQ of 120 to implement it on paper for a test case, it seems unrealistic to expect the theory to be applied by Carl to philanthropic political donations.