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CarlShulman comments on Reflections on a Personal Public Relations Failure: A Lesson in Communication - Less Wrong
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The tone of the last paragraph seems uncalled for. I doubt that a unitary "order of magnitude estimation skill" is the key variable here. To put a predictive spin on this I doubt that you'd find a very strong correlation between results in a Fermi calculation contest and estimates of the above probabilities among elite hard sciences PhD students.