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timtyler comments on Reflections on a Personal Public Relations Failure: A Lesson in Communication - Less Wrong
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I feel like you still haven't understood the main criticism of your posts. You have acknowledged every mistake except for having an incorrect conclusion. All the thousands of words you've written avoid confronting the main point, which is whether people should donate to SIAI. To answer this, we need four numbers:
We don't need exact numbers, but we emphatically do need orders of magnitude. If you get the order magnitude of any one of 1-3 wrong, then your conclusion is shot. The problem is, estimating orders of magnitude is a hard skill; it can be learned, but it is not widespread. And if you don't have that skill, you cannot reason correctly about the topic.
So far, you have given exactly one order of magnitude estimate, and it was shot down as ridiculous by multiple qualified people. Since then, you have consistently refused to give any numbers whatsoever. The logical conclusion is that, like most people, you lack the order of magnitude estimation skill. And unfortunately, that means that you cannot speak credibly on questions where order of magnitude estimation is required.