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orthonormal comments on Reflections on a Personal Public Relations Failure: A Lesson in Communication - Less Wrong
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Scanning back through the recent posts, I saw 4 or 5 first posts at 0 or lower in the last 2 months, out of about 20 first posts. (I have the feeling that there were a few more whose authors deleted them in the vain hopes of getting karma restored, but I could be wrong.)
Obviously, people who have been lurking for a while and hanging out with Less Wrongers in real life have a pretty good expected karma on their first post.
And I would expect that people who are already veteran commenters when they post for the first time probably have even better prospects.