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swestrup comments on 3 Levels of Rationality Verification - Less Wrong
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Ask a thousand married rationalists of a given school to estimate the probability that their spouses have cheated on them. Confidentially ask their spouses if they have. Measure group calibration.
ETA: This applies to any potentially painful, but verifiable question. Ask them to draw a probability distribution over their date of death, or the longevity of their marriages. Estimate the probability of various kinds of cancer appearing over the next (5,10,15) years, etc. etc.
You'd have to define 'cheated on'. A fair number of the most rational folks I know live in non-traditional marriage arrangements.
This is entirely true. We're going for emotional effect, so on that test, I'd keep it to the self-identified monogamists