MBlume comments on 3 Levels of Rationality Verification - Less Wrong

43 Post author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 15 March 2009 05:19PM

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Comment author: talisman 15 March 2009 10:33:37PM 29 points [-]

Occasionally, well-respected community members could say things that are intentionally false, but persuasive and subtle, a la http://www.overcomingbias.com/2008/02/my-favorite-lia.html.

You get points for catching these mistakes. Perhaps you submit your busts privately to some arbiter so others have the same challenge.

Later, the error is revealed and discussed.

This would also have the benefit of causing everyone to read the most-respected members' writings ultra-critically, rather than sitting back and being spoon-fed.

One key thing this idea has is short term feedback. Frequent, rapid feedback is essential for getting good at this kind of thing. (IMO that's why economics is still so useless relative to the other sciences: the experiments take fifty years to run.)

Comment author: MBlume 15 March 2009 10:46:11PM 3 points [-]

I can see the need for anonymity to avoid spoilers, but I think doing the thing publicly has benefits too -- that way there's the risk on the other side of having publicly denounced the Great Teacher when he was speaking truthfully.

Comment author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 15 March 2009 11:19:30PM 3 points [-]

You could have private points subtracted off and that gives you the same incentive not to make uncertain accusations. Attach confidence levels and take Bayes-score.

Comment author: JGWeissman 01 April 2009 05:21:06AM 3 points [-]

With the Bayes-score being always negative, I don't see what incentive one would have to submit a mistake report. I think it would be better to test for better than, for example, 90% confidence, by awarding 1 point for a correct report and deducting 9 points for an incorrect report. This achieves the goal of detecting ability to detect bad arguments. Measuring calibration would have to be a seperate test.

Comment author: jyasskin 29 December 2010 05:41:46PM 1 point [-]

Treat not submitting a mistake report as the "I have no idea" claim: that you've assigned a probability of "mistakes/total emails" to this particular email being a mistake.