magfrump comments on The Irrationality Game - Less Wrong

38 Post author: Will_Newsome 03 October 2010 02:43AM

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Comment author: magfrump 03 October 2010 04:30:19AM 24 points [-]

voted up because 60% seems WAAAAAYYYY underconfident to me.

Comment author: Eugine_Nier 03 October 2010 04:40:39AM 4 points [-]

Now that we're up-voting underconfidence I changed my vote.

Comment author: magfrump 03 October 2010 04:56:43AM 2 points [-]

From the OP:

Vote up if you think they are either overconfident or underconfident in their belief: any disagreement is valid disagreement.

Comment author: Zvi 06 October 2010 07:06:43PM 0 points [-]

I almost want this reworded the opposite way for this reason, as a 40% chance that there are not better-than-placebo methods for causing significant fat loss. Even if I didn't have first and second hand examples to fall back on I don't see why there is real doubt on this question. Another more interesting variation is, does such a method exist that is practical for a large percentage of people?

Comment author: wedrifid 03 October 2010 05:05:51AM *  0 points [-]

Likewise. My p: 99.5%

Comment author: datadataeverywhere 03 October 2010 11:47:30PM -1 points [-]

likewise

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