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magfrump comments on The Irrationality Game - Less Wrong
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I think that there are better-than-placebo methods for causing significant fat loss. (60%)
ETA: apparently I need to clarify.
It is way more likely than 60% that gastric bypass surgery, liposuction, starvation, and meth will cause fat loss. I am not talking about that. I am talking about healthy diet and exercise. Can most people who want to lose weight do that deliberately, through diet and exercise? I think it's likely but not certain.
voted up because 60% seems WAAAAAYYYY underconfident to me.
Now that we're up-voting underconfidence I changed my vote.
From the OP:
I almost want this reworded the opposite way for this reason, as a 40% chance that there are not better-than-placebo methods for causing significant fat loss. Even if I didn't have first and second hand examples to fall back on I don't see why there is real doubt on this question. Another more interesting variation is, does such a method exist that is practical for a large percentage of people?
Likewise. My p: 99.5%
likewise