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SarahC comments on The Irrationality Game - Less Wrong
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shoot... I'm just scared to bet, is all. You can tell I'm no fun at Casino Night.
Ah, but betting for a proposition is equivalent to betting against its opposite. Why are you so certain that there's no better-than-placebo methods for causing significant fat loss?
But If you do change your mind, please don't change the original, as then everyone's comments would be irrelevant.
Absolutely right. This is an important point that many people miss. If you're uncertain about your estimated probability, or even merely risk averse, then you may want to take neither side of the implied bet. Fine, but at least figure out some odds where you feel like you should have an indifferent expectation.
I think, with some confidence, that there are better-than-placebo methods for causing significant fat loss. The low confidence estimate has more to do with my reluctance to be wrong than anything else.
If I were wrong, it would be because overweight is mostly genetic and irreversible (something I have seen argued and supported with clinical studies.)
I sympathize with this. But I also upvoted the original comment because of it (i.e. I also think you're underconfident).