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Will_Newsome comments on The Irrationality Game - Less Wrong
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I am shocked that more people believe in a 95% chance of advanced flying saucers than a 99.5% change of not being in 'basement reality'. Really?! I still think all of you upvoters are irrational! Irrational I say!
I certainly agree with you now, but it wasn't entirely certain what you meant by your statement. A qualifier might help.
Most won't see the need for precision, but you're right, I should add a qualifier for those who'd (justifiably) like it.
Help! There is someone reasoning in terms of decision theoretic significantness ruining my fun by telling me that my disagreement with you is meaningless.
Ahhh! Ahhhhh! I am extremely reluctant to go into long explanations here. Have you read the TDT manual though? I think it's up at the singinst.org website now, finally. It might dissolve confusions of interpretation, but no promises. Sorry, it's just a really tricky and confusing topic with lots of different intuitions to take into account and I really couldn't do it justice in a few paragraphs here. :(