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torekp comments on The Irrationality Game - Less Wrong
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Although lots of people here consider it a hallmark of "rationality," assigning numerical probabilities to common-sense conclusions and beliefs is meaningless, except perhaps as a vague figure of speech. (Absolutely certain.)
Upvoted, because I think you're only probably right. And you not only stole my thunder, you made it more thunderous :(
Downvote if you agree with something, upvote if you disagree.
EDIT: I missed the word only. I just read "I think you're probably right." My mistake.
Upvote for disagreements of overconfidence OR underconfidence.
Same here. A "pretty sure" confidence level would probably have done it for me.