Perplexed comments on The Irrationality Game - Less Wrong
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There's no way to create a non-vague, predictive, model of human behavior, because most human behavior is (mostly) random reaction to stimuli.
Corollary 1: most models explain after the fact and require both the subject to be aware of the model's predictions and the predictions to be vague and underspecified enough to make astrology seems like spacecraft engineering.
Corollary 2: we'll spend most of our time in drama trying to understand the real reasons or the truth about our/other's behavior even when presented with evidence pointing to the randomness of our actions. After the fact we'll fabricate an elaborate theory to explain everything, including the evidence, but this theory will have no predictive power.
Downvoted in agreement. But I think that the randomness comes from what programmers call "race conditions" in the timing of external stimuli vs internal stimuli. Still, these race conditions make prediction impossible as a practical matter.