orthonormal comments on The Irrationality Game - Less Wrong

38 Post author: Will_Newsome 03 October 2010 02:43AM

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Comment author: dyokomizo 03 October 2010 01:44:46PM 45 points [-]

There's no way to create a non-vague, predictive, model of human behavior, because most human behavior is (mostly) random reaction to stimuli.

Corollary 1: most models explain after the fact and require both the subject to be aware of the model's predictions and the predictions to be vague and underspecified enough to make astrology seems like spacecraft engineering.

Corollary 2: we'll spend most of our time in drama trying to understand the real reasons or the truth about our/other's behavior even when presented with evidence pointing to the randomness of our actions. After the fact we'll fabricate an elaborate theory to explain everything, including the evidence, but this theory will have no predictive power.

Comment author: orthonormal 04 October 2010 02:43:14AM 5 points [-]

This (modulo the chance it was made up) is pretty strong evidence that you're wrong. I wish it was professionally ethical for psychologists to do this kind of thing intentionally.

Comment author: Blueberry 22 January 2011 02:49:56AM 10 points [-]

Here's another case:

"Let me get this straight. We had sex. I wind up in the hospital and I can't remember anything?" Alice said. There was a slight pause. "You owe me a 30-carat diamond!" Alice quipped, laughing. Within minutes, she repeated the same questions in order, delivering the punch line in the exact tone and inflection. It was always a 30-carat diamond. "It was like a script or a tape," Scott said. "On the one hand, it was very funny. We were hysterical. It was scary as all hell." While doctors tried to determine what ailed Alice, Scott and other grim-faced relatives and friends gathered at the hospital. Surrounded by anxious loved ones, Alice blithely cracked jokes (the same ones) for hours.

Comment author: AdeleneDawner 04 October 2010 02:48:49AM 3 points [-]

I wish it was professionally ethical for psychologists to do this kind of thing intentionally.

They could probably do some relevant research by talking to Alzheimer's patients - they wouldn't get anything as clear as that, I think, but I expect they'd be able to get statistically-significant data.

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