= 27d567bc2d48d9f40e9ccc20ea370b15)
James_Miller comments on The Irrationality Game - Less Wrong
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
= 783df68a0f980790206b9ea87794c5b6)
Loading…= b715d02e85f7b3b4ae65ca3d3e450868)
Subscribe to RSS Feed
Powered by Reddit
= f037147d6e6c911a85753b9abdedda8d)
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (910)
Within five years the Chinese government will have embarked on a major eugenics program designed to mass produce super-geniuses. (40%)
I think 40% is about right for China to do something about that unlikely-sounding in the next five years. The specificity of it being that particular thing is burdensome, though; the probability is much lower than the plausibility. Upvoted.
Upvoting. If you had said 10 years or 15 years I'd find this much more plausible. But I'm very curious to hear your explanation.
I wrote about it here:
http://www.ideasinactiontv.com/tcs_daily/2007/10/a-thousand-chinese-einsteins-every-year.html
Once we have identified genes that play a key role in intelligence then eugenics through massive embryo selection has a good chance at producing lots of super-geniuses especially if you are willing to tolerate a high "error rate." The Chinese are actively looking for the genetic keys to intelligence. (See http://vladtepesblog.com/?p=24064) The Chinese have a long pro-eugenics history (See Imperfect Conceptions by Frank Dikötter) and I suspect have a plan to implement a serious eugenics program as soon as it becomes practical which will likely be within the next five years.
I think the main point of disagreement is the estimate that such a program would be practical in five years (hence my longer-term estimate). My impression is that actual studies of the genetic roots of intelligence are progressing but at a fairly slow pace. I'd give a much lower than 40% chance that we'll have that good an understanding in five years.
If the following is correct we are already close to finding lots of IQ boosting genes:
"SCIENTISTS have identified more than 200 genes potentially associated with academic performance in schoolchildren.
Those schoolchildren possessing the 'right' combinations achieved significantly better results in numeracy, literacy and science.'"
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/found-genes-that-make-kids-smart/story-e6frg6nf-1225926421510
The article is correct, but we are not close to finding lots of IQ boosting genes.
But the relevant question is whether the Chinese government is fooled by this too.
Can you specify what "major" means? I would be shocked if the government wasn't already pairing high-IQ individuals like they do with very tall people to breed basketball players.
Recorded:
Hat tip to China.
Tentatively downvoted; I think over a longer time period it's highly likely, but I would be unsurprised to later discover that it started that soon. I might put my (uninformed) guess closer to 10-20% but it feels qualitatively similar.