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Risto_Saarelma comments on The Irrationality Game - Less Wrong
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Upvoted for excessive use of nines. :)
(ie. Gross overcondidence.)
I was originally going to include an additional 9, but decided I should compensate for overconfidence bias. :)
But, seriously, I don't understand why people are so reluctant to quote large probabilities. For some statements, e.g., "the sun will rise tomorrow", 99.999% seems way underconfident.
I wouldn't have said the number of nines indicated overconfidence if you were talking about the sun rising. I do not believe you have enough evidence to reach that level of certainty on this subject. I would include multiple nines in my declaration of confidence in that claim.
You think there's a 999,999/100,000 chance the sun will rise tomorrow? I think you may be overconfident here...