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Will_Sawin comments on The Irrationality Game - Less Wrong
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the level of genius of geniuses, especially the non-hardworking ones, is too high & rare to be explained entirely by this.
Though I should talk to others about this as it is testable, I have seen evidence of affective intelligence spirals. Faith in oneself and hard work lead to success and a work ethic, making it easier to have faith and keep working.
I would expect this hypothesis (conditional on affective genius cycles which are more readily testable) to predict MORE "geniuses of geniuses," not fewer.