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Academian comments on The Irrationality Game - Less Wrong
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Comments (910)
This comment currently (at the time of reading) has at least 10 net upvotes.
Confidence: 99%.
You realize, of course, that your confidence level is too high. Eventually, the score should cycle between +9 and +10. Which means that the correct confidence level should be 50%.
Nonetheless, it is very cute. So, I'll upvote it for overconfidence, to say nothing of currently being wrong.
Once it gets to 10 points, it should be voted up for underconfidence.
Except that there's a chance that it's been downvoted by someone else that's sufficient for 99% to warrant agreement rather than a statement of underconfidence (if and only if people decide that this is true!) which would be easily broken if it got up to 11 but would be far more easily broken if the confidence was set at say, 75%.
It would actually be +8 to +11. (I don't think that changes the 50%.)
Cycle's broken! Now upvoted for underconfidence.