Zvi comments on The Irrationality Game - Less Wrong
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I almost want this reworded the opposite way for this reason, as a 40% chance that there are not better-than-placebo methods for causing significant fat loss. Even if I didn't have first and second hand examples to fall back on I don't see why there is real doubt on this question. Another more interesting variation is, does such a method exist that is practical for a large percentage of people?