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Risto_Saarelma comments on The Irrationality Game - Less Wrong
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I don't see how anyone would disagree with in that formulation, since there are vastly more ways to fail than to succeed.
The debated idea is that most people, due to the genetic lottery, couldn't aspire to genius-level achievement no matter what their (reasonable) circumstances. Yours seems to be directed at a stance which completely dismisses the "dumb luck" part, after conception, of people ending up being considered a genius. I haven't seen anyone who thinks somewhat unusual genetics are probably a necessary precondition for genius for humans as they are today taking that stance.
I agree, thinking about my post again it is much weaker and not really useful to the discussion.
Although I did have the purpose of conflicting with some fictional evidence; for example, vampires always turn out to be rich and in "Deepness in the Sky" Pham Nuwen is said to have built up a trillion dollar fortune out of nothing after abandoned on a planet. These sorts of things tend to imply that regardless of the circumstances of a person if they are smart enough they can work their way out.
It's somewhat distinct in that the fictional characters have a basis to build upon whereas a newborn does not, but if anyone is updating on fictional evidence they should stop.