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Wrongnesslessness comments on The Irrationality Game - Less Wrong
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All existence is intrinsically meaningless. After the Singularity, there will be no escape from the fate of the rat with the pleasure button. No FAI, however Friendly, will be able to work around this irremediable property of the Universe except by limiting the intelligence of people and making them go through their eternal lives in carefully designed games. (> 95%)
Also, any self-aware AI with sufficient intelligence and knowledge will immediately self-destruct or go crazy. (> 99.9%)
I'm trying to figure out what this statement means. What would the universe look like if it were false?
In context, I took it to predict something like "Above a certain limit, as a system becomes more intelligent and thus more able to discern the true nature of existence, it will become less able to motivate itself to achieve goals."
You can't. We live in an intrinsically meaningless universe, where all statements are intrinsically meaningless. :-)
I'm not sure it's a bug if "all existence is meaningless" turns out to be meaningless.
This prediction isn't falsifiable -- the word "crazy" is not precise enough, and the word "sufficient" is a loophole you can drive the planet Jupiter through.
Aren't you supposed to separate distinct predictions? Edit: don't see it in the rules, so remainder of post changed to reflect.
I upvote the second prediction - the existence of self-aware humans seems evidence of overconfidence, at the very least.
But humans are crazy! Aren't they?
If we define crazy as "sufficiently mentally unusual as to be noticeably dysfunctional in society" then I estimate at least 50% of humanity is not crazy.
If we define crazy as "sufficiently mentally unusual that they cannot achieve ordinary goals more than 70% of the time," then I estimate that at least 75% of humanity is not crazy.