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TimS comments on The Irrationality Game - Less Wrong
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Aren't you supposed to separate distinct predictions? Edit: don't see it in the rules, so remainder of post changed to reflect.
I upvote the second prediction - the existence of self-aware humans seems evidence of overconfidence, at the very least.
But humans are crazy! Aren't they?
If we define crazy as "sufficiently mentally unusual as to be noticeably dysfunctional in society" then I estimate at least 50% of humanity is not crazy.
If we define crazy as "sufficiently mentally unusual that they cannot achieve ordinary goals more than 70% of the time," then I estimate that at least 75% of humanity is not crazy.