I agree with the main point of this post.
Still undecided about whether so strong a statement as
The incentives are mad, but at least for now overt hypocrisy (and actual competence) is more common than sincere idiocy in Congress.
is true (don't have enough data to know), but could easily imagine it being so.
The following excerpt from an NPR story on TARP makes me feel that while the world is mad, I might have overestimated how much of that madness comes from our political leaders:
The import of this, as I see it, is that many lawmakers are pretty cognizant of the relevant issues, and that their irrational grandstanding is often a facade for the sake of the voters who think more tribally than quantitatively. The incentives are mad, but at least for now overt hypocrisy (and actual competence) is more common than sincere idiocy in Congress.
Of course, that's not completely reassuring, because if an important (but not immediately urgent) bill is unpopular, it's worth it for one party to actually oppose it and thereby gain political points. It's only in a genuine crisis that you'd see both parties actually do the right thing. (I leave it for your consideration whether TARP was indeed the right thing; but at least now I understand Harry Reid's claim that this was one of Washington's finest hours– a claim that Jon Stewart skewered mercilessly at the time.)