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siduri comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 4 - Less Wrong
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But there's nothing in the situation that would have come as a surprise to Quirrell. If his goals were the ones he stated to Harry, then Quirrell is indeed left holding the Idiot Ball.
EDIT: By "nothing in the situation that would have come as a surprise," I mean the fact that there's a duel with an auror in Azkaban, and that Harry is present and observing. In that situation casting a Killing Curse is idiotic, if the goal is simply to keep moving with minimum fuss. Quirrell would have known that perfectly well when he was making his plan.
He could have confidently foreseen that the AK would have ruined the "perfect crime" and pissed Harry off.
He could not have confidently foreseen that Harry's Patronus would teleport in the way, block the Killing Curse, cause a magical backlash, and disappear.
I realized after I wrote that line about "nothing in the situation that would have come as a surprise" that it could be read that way, and I edited to clarify.
My speculation is that Quirrell might have reason to assume that any intervention by Harry would cause the magical backlash, but that really is just speculation, I freely admit.