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NihilCredo comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 4 - Less Wrong
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He could have confidently foreseen that the AK would have ruined the "perfect crime" and pissed Harry off.
He could not have confidently foreseen that Harry's Patronus would teleport in the way, block the Killing Curse, cause a magical backlash, and disappear.
I realized after I wrote that line about "nothing in the situation that would have come as a surprise" that it could be read that way, and I edited to clarify.
My speculation is that Quirrell might have reason to assume that any intervention by Harry would cause the magical backlash, but that really is just speculation, I freely admit.