Desrtopa comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 4 - Less Wrong

3 Post author: gjm 07 October 2010 09:12PM

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Comment author: Desrtopa 04 November 2010 02:35:10AM 4 points [-]

Considering that Quirrell is one of the most powerful and feared wizards ever to live, sheer competence is probably the simplest explanation for him being able to perform exceptional feats of magic while handicapped.

From Bahry's perspective, the possibility that the unknown criminal he's facing is secretly the most dangerous dark wizard of modern times is unlikely enough not to merit immediate consideration. From the readers' perspective, it's an established fact.

Comment author: TheOtherDave 04 November 2010 03:42:28AM 6 points [-]

Huh.

When you put it that way, it seems plausible.

In fact... you're right, and I'm wrong.

If there's a highly salient fact in play that Bahry neither knows nor can reasonably be expected to consider, which is certainly a strong possibility, then Bahry's beliefs about the situation stop being credible evidence about much of anything, and I should not be treating them that way.

I'm falling into the trap of assuming that everybody else already knows what I know.

I hereby repudiate my earlier speculations.

Thank you.