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AnnaSalamon comments on Probability and Politics - Less Wrong
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Comments (31)
Cool example. I'm still confused, though; why model our uncertainty about the electoral outcome as stemming form which folks will go to the polls (while assuming for simplicity that each person has fixed preferences), rather than as stemming from our uncertainty as to how a fixed set of voters will vote (while assuming for simplicity that the set of voters is fixed)?
ETA: Sorry, I edited this after it was replied to, without noticing the reply.
I assume the randomness comes from sampling error, not from uncertainty about who people will vote for. My parents will always vote for Republicans, but they don't always participate.