Vladimir_Nesov comments on Probability and Politics - Less Wrong

17 Post author: CarlShulman 24 November 2010 05:02PM

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Comment author: SilasBarta 26 November 2010 08:53:32PM *  2 points [-]

That's the more interesting topic, and it came up when I visited the NYC LW crew last week.

My take is that, if TDT really is superior to other decision theories, then a society of majority-TDTers should not lose out to "mindless drone decision theorists" (MDDTers) simply by all individually refusing to vote, while the MDDTers vote for stupid policies in unision.

The TDTers would, rather, recognize the correlation between their decisions, and reason that their own decision, in the relevant sense, sets the output of the other TDTers, so they have to count the benefit of voting as being more than just "my favored policies +1 vote". I conclude that a TDTer would decide to vote, reasoning something like "If I deem it optimal to vote, so do decision makers similar to me."

The others there disagreed that TDTers would vote in such an instance, claiming that other methods of influencing the outcome exceed the effectiveness of voting in all situations.

Comment author: Vladimir_Nesov 26 November 2010 09:17:06PM 0 points [-]

This analysis of consequences of your decisions doesn't just say that other people who perform similar analysis are influenced by your decision. People who make their decisions differently can be (seen as) influenced as well.