Can you make this statement more precise and give references to support it? I'm not sure what you mean by "indicators."
I mean that if you were trying to select 100 kids to ensure that at least one would go on to win a Fields medal, picking out those at the top of the Math Olympiad distribution (the highest gold medal scores, youngest gold medalists) would probably suffice.
I've heard this from many people and believe it but have not had a chance to chase down references - do you have some handy?
The biggest datasets are from militaries (with the most representative ones from countries with universal conscription). Check out the APA report on intelligence by Niesser et al, this zoo of references on wikipedia, or Linda Gottfredson's website.
As I mentioned in Fields Medalists on School Mathematics, school mathematics usually gives a heavily distorted picture of mathematical practice. It's common for bright young people to participate in math competitions, an activity which is closer to that of mathematical practice. Unfortunately, while math competitions may be more representative of mathematical practice than school mathematics, math competitions are themselves greatly misleading. Furthermore, they've become tied to a misleading mythological conception of "genius." I've collected relevant quotations below.
Acknowledgment - I obtained some of these quotations from a collection of mathematician quotations compiled by my colleague Laurens Gunnarsen.
In a 2003 interview, Fields Medalist Terence Tao answered the question
by saying
In The Case against the Mathematical Tripos mathematician GH Hardy wrote
In The Map of My Life mathematician Goro Shimura wrote of his experience teaching at a cram school
In his lecture at the 2001 International Mathematics Olympiad, Andrew Wiles gave further description of how math competitions are unrepresentative of mathematical practice
In his Mathematical Education essay, Fields Medalist William Thurston said
In his book Mathematics: A Very Short Introduction, Fields Medalist Timothy Gowers writes
In Does one have to be a genius to do maths? Terence Tao concurs with Gowers and expands on the same theme.
Fields Medalist Alexander Grothendieck describes his own relevant experience in Récoltes et Semailles