You mean this table? :)
(This and the one I made below can be seen properly at http://tinyurl.com/lwgttable , along with the ATT vs DEF tables I worked out the outcomes from)
Hmm. Unless this has gone wrong, the best combo is Sword 1 and Armour 4, with Sword 1/Armour 1 being close). But if you bank on people choosing 1/4, then 1/1 will beat them.
NB: Yes, I made a lot of mistakes and edits to get here, and probably have still made some...
VS a1 a1 a1 a1 a2 a2 a2 a2 a3 a3 a3 a3 a4 a4 a4 a4
s1 s2 s3 s4 s1 s2 s3 s4 s1 s2 s3 s4 s1 s2 s3 s4
a1 s1 0.5 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1
a1 s2 1 0.5 1 1 1 0.5 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
a1 s3 1 0 0.5 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1
a1 s4 1 0 1 0.5 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0
a2 s1 0 0 0 1 0.5 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1
a2 s2 1 0.5 0 1 1 0.5 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1
a2 s3 1 0 0 1 1 1 0.5 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1
a2 s4 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0.5 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0
a3 s1 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0.5 0 1 0 1 0 1 0
a3 s2 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0.5 1 0 1 0 1 0
a3 s3 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0.5 0 1 1 1 0
a3 s4 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 0.5 0 0 0 0
a4 s1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0.5 0.5 0 1
a4 s2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0.5 0.5 0 1
a4 s3 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0.5 1
a4 s4 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0.5
_ _ 10.5 1 6.5 9.5 9.5 4 6.5 9.5 8.5 7.5 8.5 9.5 11 9 7.5 9.5
Nice chart. This one's better, though; it clearly lists which sword and armor win, as well as listing number of losses and ties. I got it from the same thread as the one in the OP; I was just waiting until someone suggested doing something like this before I posted it.
Didn't want to take away your fun, after all. ;)
Note: this image does not belong to me; I found it on 4chan. It presents an interesting exercise, though, so I'm posting it here for the enjoyment of the Less Wrong community.
For the sake of this thought experiment, assume that all characters have the same amount of HP, which is sufficiently large that random effects can be treated as being equal to their expected values. There are no NPC monsters, critical hits, or other mechanics; gameplay consists of two PCs getting into a duel, and fighting until one or the other loses. The winner is fully healed afterwards.
Which sword and armor combination do you choose, and why?