machrider comments on Swords and Armor: A Game Theory Thought Experiment - Less Wrong
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Deleted earlier comment due to a bug in the code.
Here's the result of a naive brute force program that assumes a random distribution of opponents (i.e. any combo is equally likely), sorted by number of wins:
The program is here: http://pastie.org/1217024 (pipe through sort -n)
It performs 30 iterations of all 16 vs 16 matchups. Note that the player that attacks first has an advantage, so doing all 16 vs 16 balances that out (everyone is player 1 as often as he is player 2).
I signed up today to comment in this thread, so don't mock me too heavily. :)
Edit: Bumped iterations to 30 and hit points to 80,000 to try to smooth out randomness in the results.
I'm thinking iterations just confuses things. With a high enough HP value we should be able to eliminate "luck". So here's a pass with 1 iteration and 20 million initial HP: