blogospheroid comments on Ranking the "competition" based on optimization power - Less Wrong

-1 Post author: blogospheroid 17 October 2010 04:55PM

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Comment author: Eugine_Nier 17 October 2010 06:30:01PM *  3 points [-]

This list seems to suffer greatly from availability bias. Things to consider adding

  • Akamai (a.k.a., the most important internet company you've never heard off)

  • Other hedge funds besides Goldman Sachs. (Goldman Sachs is the most famous, that doesn't mean it's the most rational).

  • Other governments besides the ones you mentioned. (Practically every government has at least one intelligence agency, how much you've heard about an agency isn't a reliable predictor of how competent it is).

Comment author: blogospheroid 18 October 2010 03:59:45AM 0 points [-]

Availability Bias.

Guilty, but that is why I sent this question out to a wider community, so that as a group, we can get better answers to this one. I believe it is an important question and that is why i was wondering about the downvote. My guesses are not the main part of this post, the question is.

Kindly list some other hedge funds which might have some high optimization power.

Comment author: Eugine_Nier 18 October 2010 04:13:38AM 1 point [-]

Kindly list some other hedge funds which might have some high optimization power.

D. E. Shaw is one that I can think of off the top of my head, but there are many others.

Also, what do you mean by optimization power? How likely they are to build a fooming AGI? How much power they currently or potentially have? Something else?

Comment author: blogospheroid 18 October 2010 05:06:31AM *  0 points [-]

Digesting the points from Vladimir's comment, I would say that optimization power would have the following as criteria.

  • Present Power and potential power
  • Coherence in goals
  • Sustainability - whether they look like a one trick pony or there is something genuinely fascinating going on inside.
  • Creativity - a track record of surprising solutions/impressive outcomes. for eg. for the chinese politburo, I would put high speed trains in tibet as a very noteworthy outcome.