On top of that, she didn't consult with anyone, because of the mind-reading issue.
I think this is the thing that bothers me most about Bella's plan. It's plot-induced stupidity (but I don't blame Alicorn for it, since Meyer came up with Aro's power). If Bella vocalized or wrote down her plan, even once, I find it hard to believe she wouldn't have subconsciously examined its assumptions and been struck by its idiocy. Maybe that benefit is particular to me- I find the moment I try to explain my thoughts to someone, the holes become readily visible in a way they wouldn't be if I just examined them myself- but I imagine many people experience that.
If Edward weren't lovestruck (and/or optimistic), he might have warned Bella "look, I trust you, but just in case you're planning to make Aro, the guy we've been talking about, unhappy in any way, he has the experience and the history and the malice necessary to ruin all of our lives. Don't mess with Aro."
If Alice weren't blocked by the La Push shapeshifters, then she might have noticed horrible events on the horizon when Bella decides to activate the werewolves. "Bella, is there a reason I suddenly can't envision myself?" Not sure about the future-blocking and the temporal range of Alice's visions, but it seems likely she would note blankness spreading from Bella to everyone and say "hey, Bella, what's going on?"
It seems likely, from the way it works in canon at least, that Alice would be able to figure out something horrible is going to happen- she sees Bella jump off a cliff (and doesn't see Jacob catching Bella). Similarly, she might see Bella burning in a pit (but not Leah hunting Bella), but the similarities there are somewhat strained.
(Also, sudden thought: what if the "this one" they killed was Alice? Seems tremendously unlikely- Edward is the only one the follow-up statement makes sense for- but isn't contradicted by any evidence so far.)
Edward is the only one the follow-up statement makes sense for
It also makes sense for Irina. She would be dead set on eradicating the very useful new servants of the Volturi, a sufficient reason to kill her. I haven't read the Twilight books but I think that in canon they kill her for wasting their time.
This is Part 2 of the discussion of Alicorn's Twilight fanfic Luminosity.
LATE BREAKING EDIT: Part 3 exists now, so new comment threads should be started there rather than here.
In the vein of the Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion threads this is the place to discuss anything relating to Alicorn's Twilight fanfic Luminosity. The fanfic is also archived on Alicorn's own website.
Here is Part 1 of the discussion. Previous discussion is hidden so deeply within the first Methods of Rationality thread that it's difficult to find even if you already know it exists.
Similar to how Eliezer's fanfic popularizes material from his sequences Alicorn is using the insights from her Luminosity sequence.
The fic is really really good but there is a twist part way through that makes the fic even more worth reading than it already was, but that makes it hard to talk about because to even ask if someone is twist-aware with any specific hints is difficult. The twist is in the latter half of the story. If you are certainly not post-twist and want to save the surprise, then you should stop reading here and fall back to Part 1 discussion or to the fic itself.
If you think you're pretty sure you are post-twist and are safe to read the rest of this, try reading this rot13'ed hint and see if what you've read matches this high level description of the twist...
Rqjneq unf qvfpbirerq gur frperg gung Vfnoryyn jnf xrrcvat sebz uvz "sbe uvf bja tbbq" bhg bs srne bs Neb ernqvat Rqjneq'f zvaq. Va gur nsgrezngu, fbzrguvat unf punatrq nobhg gurve eryngvbafuvc gung znl unir pnhfrq lbh gb pel sbe n juvyr, naq juvpu znlor urycf gb rzbgvbanyyl qevir ubzr gur pbzovarq zrffntr bs YJ'f negvpyrf nobhg "fbzrguvat gb cebgrpg" naq "ernfba nf n zrzrgvp vzzhar qvfbeqre" naq gur jnl gurl pna fvzhygnarbhfyl nccyl gb crbcyr jub unir abguvat zber va gur jbeyq guna fbzr fvatyr crefba jub gurl ybir.
If the answer to the hint is obvious, then just to be sure that there is not a double illusion of transparency at work, here is the cutoff point spelled out explicitly:
Gur phgbss cbvag sbe cbfgvat urer vf gung lbh unir ernq hc gb puncgre svsgl svir (va gur snasvpgvba irefvba) be puncgre gjragl rvtug ba Nyvpbea'f jrofvgr jurer Rqjneq jnf cebonoyl vapvarengrq, Vfnoryyn fheivirf na nggrzcgrq vapvarengvba, naq fur unf gb ortha gb jbex bhg jung gb qb jvgu gur jerpxntr bs gur erfg bs ure "rgreany" yvsr.