If I were the Volturi, and had complete knowledge of everything the readers know (or even everything Adelaide knows) I would be very concerned about the fact that a supernaturally effective communicator who was also an Alpha's imprint was working on a way to subvert the influence of my primary mechanism for ensuring the loyalty of a mass of other witches and werewolves.
That is, I don't think it would be at all implausible for Elspeth to work out a heuristic for neutralizing Chelsea's ability -- not by supernaturally negating it, but by developing her self-awareness via the exercise of explicitly formalizing the interactions among her cognitive subagents; by prioritizing what she knows about her values over what she experiences about them (or, to use Alicorn's terminology: by choosing to endorse the parts of her psyche that align with her pre-Chelsea values and repudiate the parts that don't) and consequently behaving in ways consistent with what she believes to be most importantly true of her, rather than consistent with how she feels).
And if Elspeth does develop a heuristic for doing that, she can communicate that heuristic to others very effectively. That's what she does, after all: she is a supernaturally powerful outbound communicator.
And, well, if she communicates that heuristic to the newly Chelseaed witches effectively enough, then some of them may well manage to do the same thing. And if she does the same to Jake, he is pretty much immediately on her side, and presumably a sizable chunk of wolves go along with him (especially since the wolves' telepathic network will propagate her heuristic like a virus through Windows).
And the Volturi suddenly have a collection of powerful enemies right in their midst, and for every "turned" vampire there are another half dozen who haven't turned but they can't necessarily trust. Their power structure doesn't collapse, but it certainly gets wounded, which can easily give Elspeth, Jake, and whoever ends up turned a chance to get away.
And after that, well, it's basically a magical propaganda war.
Yes, this is probably (and hopefully) what will happen if there's to be an escape for Elspeth and potential vampires and wolves. I wonder how much Aro knows about Adelaide's interactions with Elspeth. Her judgement on the risk Elspeth poses may be clouded by her interest in developing the usefulness of a witch's power, but I doubt Aro has enough interest in that or enough tolerance for Adelaide to permit this huge risk. I think it's very unlikely that with all his wisdom and experience he wouldn't realize the risk, if he knew what Adelaide currently knows ...
This is Part 2 of the discussion of Alicorn's Twilight fanfic Luminosity.
LATE BREAKING EDIT: Part 3 exists now, so new comment threads should be started there rather than here.
In the vein of the Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion threads this is the place to discuss anything relating to Alicorn's Twilight fanfic Luminosity. The fanfic is also archived on Alicorn's own website.
Here is Part 1 of the discussion. Previous discussion is hidden so deeply within the first Methods of Rationality thread that it's difficult to find even if you already know it exists.
Similar to how Eliezer's fanfic popularizes material from his sequences Alicorn is using the insights from her Luminosity sequence.
The fic is really really good but there is a twist part way through that makes the fic even more worth reading than it already was, but that makes it hard to talk about because to even ask if someone is twist-aware with any specific hints is difficult. The twist is in the latter half of the story. If you are certainly not post-twist and want to save the surprise, then you should stop reading here and fall back to Part 1 discussion or to the fic itself.
If you think you're pretty sure you are post-twist and are safe to read the rest of this, try reading this rot13'ed hint and see if what you've read matches this high level description of the twist...
Rqjneq unf qvfpbirerq gur frperg gung Vfnoryyn jnf xrrcvat sebz uvz "sbe uvf bja tbbq" bhg bs srne bs Neb ernqvat Rqjneq'f zvaq. Va gur nsgrezngu, fbzrguvat unf punatrq nobhg gurve eryngvbafuvc gung znl unir pnhfrq lbh gb pel sbe n juvyr, naq juvpu znlor urycf gb rzbgvbanyyl qevir ubzr gur pbzovarq zrffntr bs YJ'f negvpyrf nobhg "fbzrguvat gb cebgrpg" naq "ernfba nf n zrzrgvp vzzhar qvfbeqre" naq gur jnl gurl pna fvzhygnarbhfyl nccyl gb crbcyr jub unir abguvat zber va gur jbeyq guna fbzr fvatyr crefba jub gurl ybir.
If the answer to the hint is obvious, then just to be sure that there is not a double illusion of transparency at work, here is the cutoff point spelled out explicitly:
Gur phgbss cbvag sbe cbfgvat urer vf gung lbh unir ernq hc gb puncgre svsgl svir (va gur snasvpgvba irefvba) be puncgre gjragl rvtug ba Nyvpbea'f jrofvgr jurer Rqjneq jnf cebonoyl vapvarengrq, Vfnoryyn fheivirf na nggrzcgrq vapvarengvba, naq fur unf gb ortha gb jbex bhg jung gb qb jvgu gur jerpxntr bs gur erfg bs ure "rgreany" yvsr.