It's true that without certain witches like Adelaide and especially Chelsea, the Volturi would have nowhere near the same amount of power and control they have now. Their witchcraft isn't so powerful that they got where they are simply because they exist though; they've been using them intelligently, and creating situations in which they can be used most effectively, by other means.
There hasn't yet been, in my opinion, any I-WIN witchcraft that enables a witch to fight with anyone and everyone without caution, or making them unable or unwilling to fight. They've all had flaws and counters, and the Volturi are winning because they've been doing a good job of covering those for a very long time. They've been simultaneously killing off opposition and potential threats - by destroying the people responsible for it, or capturing them and making use of their talents - and painting themselves as good, necessary vampires. All this make Adelaide and Chelsea's witchcraft more powerful, as both are more useful the more people the Volturi surround themselves with.
They seem to me to never be overly overconfident; they're always trying to be conscious of their own weaknesses and try to cover them as fast and effectively as possible, while also trying to be as informed of potential threats as possible, so they may use their weaknesses to eliminate the threat they pose as fast and effectively as possible. That's very rational behavior in a conflict, in my opinion. I also think it's a very healthy mindset to have in everyday life, because not all threats to your well-being and over all happiness with life has to be an armed person directly threatening yours or your beloveds' lives; often it's someone in a position of power who either intently or obliviously negatively affects you and others everyday lives through laws, economy, educational systems, judicial systems, health systems etcetera.
Sadly today's societies have little to no insight to this problem, beyond those who sit in these positions - who may be corrupt, or ignorant that their actions cause other people harm, and that they can stop this. I believe this is why we live in a world where most condemn those who are different, rather than use reason and both biased and non-biased information to find out if their appearance, what they do and think or where they live mean they are dangerous to ones health and enjoyment of life.
Too much power is put in those in a position to govern others, with no organized reasonable way to discern if what they're doing make people healthier and happier - which is, to me, the ideal everyone should strive for, along with making sure our race (and second to us; other races) continue to live and be as healthy and happy as possible; something I believe will be severely hindered if our people aren't consistently educated to apply reason and rationality beyond scientific topics, to social topics.
A few months ago there was a poll in one of Sweden's biggest online newspapers that asked the readers if they believed the Earth would ever cease to exist or be destroyed, and an astounding majority believed that it wouldn't. A similar result is achieved if one asks: do you believe humanity will ever be extinct? If we weren't all so ignorant, but rather rational people using reason to understand each other and the world, I believe all of humanity could live healthier and happier lives, and for many more generations to come than if we continued to be ignorant.
A few months ago there was a poll in one of Sweden's biggest online newspapers that asked the readers if they believed the Earth would ever cease to exist or be destroyed, and an astounding majority believed that it wouldn't. A similar result is achieved if one asks: do you believe humanity will ever be extinct?
Beware of overgeneralizing from results like this one. I've seen a lot of similar surveys, and none of them have distinguished explicitly between "infinite" and "unbounded for practical purposes"; however, people outside of m...
This is Part 2 of the discussion of Alicorn's Twilight fanfic Luminosity.
LATE BREAKING EDIT: Part 3 exists now, so new comment threads should be started there rather than here.
In the vein of the Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion threads this is the place to discuss anything relating to Alicorn's Twilight fanfic Luminosity. The fanfic is also archived on Alicorn's own website.
Here is Part 1 of the discussion. Previous discussion is hidden so deeply within the first Methods of Rationality thread that it's difficult to find even if you already know it exists.
Similar to how Eliezer's fanfic popularizes material from his sequences Alicorn is using the insights from her Luminosity sequence.
The fic is really really good but there is a twist part way through that makes the fic even more worth reading than it already was, but that makes it hard to talk about because to even ask if someone is twist-aware with any specific hints is difficult. The twist is in the latter half of the story. If you are certainly not post-twist and want to save the surprise, then you should stop reading here and fall back to Part 1 discussion or to the fic itself.
If you think you're pretty sure you are post-twist and are safe to read the rest of this, try reading this rot13'ed hint and see if what you've read matches this high level description of the twist...
Rqjneq unf qvfpbirerq gur frperg gung Vfnoryyn jnf xrrcvat sebz uvz "sbe uvf bja tbbq" bhg bs srne bs Neb ernqvat Rqjneq'f zvaq. Va gur nsgrezngu, fbzrguvat unf punatrq nobhg gurve eryngvbafuvc gung znl unir pnhfrq lbh gb pel sbe n juvyr, naq juvpu znlor urycf gb rzbgvbanyyl qevir ubzr gur pbzovarq zrffntr bs YJ'f negvpyrf nobhg "fbzrguvat gb cebgrpg" naq "ernfba nf n zrzrgvp vzzhar qvfbeqre" naq gur jnl gurl pna fvzhygnarbhfyl nccyl gb crbcyr jub unir abguvat zber va gur jbeyq guna fbzr fvatyr crefba jub gurl ybir.
If the answer to the hint is obvious, then just to be sure that there is not a double illusion of transparency at work, here is the cutoff point spelled out explicitly:
Gur phgbss cbvag sbe cbfgvat urer vf gung lbh unir ernq hc gb puncgre svsgl svir (va gur snasvpgvba irefvba) be puncgre gjragl rvtug ba Nyvpbea'f jrofvgr jurer Rqjneq jnf cebonoyl vapvarengrq, Vfnoryyn fheivirf na nggrzcgrq vapvarengvba, naq fur unf gb ortha gb jbex bhg jung gb qb jvgu gur jerpxntr bs gur erfg bs ure "rgreany" yvsr.