AnnaSalamon comments on Making your explicit reasoning trustworthy - Less Wrong

82 Post author: AnnaSalamon 29 October 2010 12:00AM

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Comment author: Vladimir_Nesov 29 October 2010 10:52:41AM 0 points [-]

Then, could you describe your idea in more detail?

Comment author: shokwave 29 October 2010 11:15:47AM 1 point [-]

I got the sense that the question is asking you to look for beliefs you predict will change for the worse. So, you can't predict which direction your beliefs will change in, but if you have an inkling that one will go in the direction of "false", then that is some sort of warning sign:

  • You haven't thought the belief through fully, so you are semi-aware there might be contradictions down the line you haven't encountered yet, or
  • You haven't considered all the evidence fully, so you are semi-aware that there might be a small amount of very strong evidence against the belief, or
  • You have privileged your hypothesis, and you are semi-aware there might be explanations that fit the evidence better, or
  • You are semi-aware that you have done one of these things, but don't know which because you haven't thought about it.

In any case, your motivated cognition has let you believe the belief, but motivated cognition doesn't feel precisely like exhaustive double-checking, and a question like this tries to find that feeling.

Comment author: AnnaSalamon 29 October 2010 12:14:08PM 5 points [-]

I got the sense that the question is asking you to look for beliefs you predict will change for the worse.

Er, no, I more meant beliefs that you'll change for the better. For example, some people find themselves flip-flipping from one fad or intellectual community to the next, each time being very enthusiastic about the new set of ideas. In such cases, their friends can often predict that later on their beliefs will move back toward their normal beliefs, and so the individual probably can too.

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