The simpler way is just to recognize that, as a human in a western society, you won't lose much more or win much more than the other humans around you

Well, unless you actually take specific steps to win more....which is kind of what this is about.

which subgroup of humans do you join? How do you make the tradeoff between different subcultures etc. But still, you don't even need a general solution to that problem, you only need to decide which of the handful of specific subcultures available to you seems best for you.

Note that people probably tend to end up here by this very process. That is, of all the subcultures available to them, the subculture of people who are interested in

carefully building up [their] abstract-reasoning ability to the point where it produces usefully accurate, unbiased, well-calibrated probability distributions over relevant outcome spaces

is the most attractive.