the probability of avoiding it by chance is virtually non-existent -- like hitting a golf ball in a random direction from a random spot on earth, and expecting it to score a hole in one.

I like the analogy. It may even fit when considering building a friendly AI - like hitting a golf ball deliberately and to the best of your ability from a randomly selected spot on the earth and trying to get a hole in one. Overwhelmingly difficult, perhaps even impossible given human capabilities but still worth dedicating all your effort to attempting!