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timtyler comments on What I would like the SIAI to publish - Less Wrong
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If we are constructing a survey of AI-singularity thinking here, I would like to know more about the opinions of Hugo de Garis. And what Bill Joy is thinking these days?
If we are trying to estimate probabilities and effect multipliers, I would like to consider the following question: Consider the projected trajectory of human technological progress without AGI assistance. For example: controlled fusion by 2140, human lifespan doubles by 2200, self-sustaining human presence on asteroids and/or Jovian satelites by 2260, etc. How much would that rate of progress be speeded if we had the assistance of AGI intelligence with 10x human speed and memory capacity? 100x? 1000x?
I conjecture that these speed-ups would be much less than people here seem to expect, and that the speed-up difference between 100x and 100,000x would be small. Intelligence may be much less important than many people think.
I don't think you can say. Different things will accelerate at different rates. For example, a dog won't build a moon rocket in a million years - but if you make it 10 times smarter, it might do that pretty quickly.