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cousin_it comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 5 - Less Wrong
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The more I think about 55-56, the more potential holes I find.
McGonagall (or people from the Ministry) successfully detected the use of a Time-Turner before, in Ch. 18. So they will detect it now and all clues will point to Harry. It can be patched over by saying Mary's Room (or Quirrell's wards) makes the event undetectable.
I don't understand the rules regarding Patronuses. Can't McGonagall ask her Patronus where it found Harry, if Dumbledore can ask his Patronus similar questions? Or, alternatively, can Dumbledore send his Patronus to Harry, like McGonagall did, and then ask something like "is he here in Azkaban?"
To everyone saying Harry will create a third copy of himself to save the day: he can't easily do it without Quirrell's assistance, because the Time-Turner is locked. One possibility would be for him to find the original Quirrell and ask for help.
Did they? IIRC, it was all indirect evidence.
I've been thinking of Patronuses as only being able to bring back one bit of information: "delivered message" vs "couldn't deliver message".
Though I'm sure there are counterexamples in both canon and MoR.