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WrongBot comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 5 - Less Wrong
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The counterfactual mugging requires that the deal be offered by an entity that is known to be both perfectly honest and a perfect predictor. If Omega tries to counterfactually mug you, you should pay him. If I try to counterfactually mug you, paying up would be significantly less wise.
A sufficiently good decision theory should get both of those cases right.
No.
The entity doesn't have to be perfect.