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Desrtopa comments on Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, part 5 - Less Wrong
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Increasing the severity of punishments generally does not result in a reduction in the rate of crimes, whereas increasing the certainty of punishment produces a reliable if weak reduction. Trying to overcome criminals' overconfidence bias by means of draconian punishments appears to simply not work.
Re-Edit: Thanks, I thought that I did that the first time around, but it just caused the text to vanish. I must have mistyped.
Markup here is the same for all links; just put the link in the second set of brackets and the text you want it to linkify in the first set. LessWrong is just an example, they could have easily used Google. Of course, it might help foster the interlinking.