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NancyLebovitz comments on Rationality Quotes: November 2010 - Less Wrong
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As I understand it, a good many German Jews had the amount of warning and the resources to get out. Polish Jews were caught more by surprise and (I think) were generally less well off, and most of the Holocaust happened there.
Perhaps we should have a discussion about making high-stakes urgent decisions under conditions of great uncertainty.
I happen to be German, currently live in Nuremberg, and finally got around to visit Auschwitz last year. But i do not know the relation of people that flew and people that stayed. Fleeing also involed the ability to pay for the ticket. I probably read some about that, but forgot. It is true that the killings mostly happened in the east. But quite many were deported there just for this purpose.
Wikipedia: Over 90% of Polish Jews were killed, and about 75% of German Jews.
Until I checked, I didn't realize that the proportion of German Jews who were killed was that high. I didn't have a specific number in mind, I think I was just giving more attention to the idea of those who'd escaped.
Yes. Not having been there limits imagination. Pre WW2 jews were as common as they are now in the US (or maybe more.) Now you will not find that many. All people of Jewish decent i know are not from Germany.
In the last year I stumbled over genocides. This being the most unexpected evil I found..
This is the one that surprised me.
Why?
Failure to think about the British record in Ireland, perhaps. Not thinking about the mere size of India, so that if things go wrong, huge numbers of people die.
So why did the Canadian atrocities against First Peoples surprise you?
I am not so much surprised with the atrocities against natives. Those are common. It is a bit surprising to learn it about Canada, because the country has a good reputation and its history is not that well known. But:
Those were schools! Schools with a death rate is so much against anything that I consider a school to be about. Its just wrong. It just looks like a relabeled death camp, and that defeats the point of education. That amount of ignorance is just mindblowing.
Oh, and the difference between people that flew at a suitable time vs. the number of people who survived. The later includes people who were deported but not killed, so the former is even lower. If you haven't read it yet. I found the comic from Art Spiegelman called 'MAUS!' pretty intense and interesting.
Depends on your level of paranoia. They might still be after you. Lets have that discussion.
It's not just them being after you-- sometimes medical decisions fall into the same category.
Maybe we should make a collection of realistic situations.
From a little thought I guess one tries to minimize damage, or maximize expected welfare. Both strategies need some calibration for realism.
Yes, on the calibration-- in particular, how do you maintain focus to do the best you can with the information you've got? What sorts of information do you need?
I'm haunted by a quote from a holocaust survivor who said that he would have done things differently (presumably fled early) if he'd "had the soul of a poet". Hindsight is 20/20, but predicting from group emotional trends is sometimes part of what's necessary.