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NancyLebovitz comments on Rationality Quotes: November 2010 - Less Wrong
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It's not just them being after you-- sometimes medical decisions fall into the same category.
Maybe we should make a collection of realistic situations.
From a little thought I guess one tries to minimize damage, or maximize expected welfare. Both strategies need some calibration for realism.
Yes, on the calibration-- in particular, how do you maintain focus to do the best you can with the information you've got? What sorts of information do you need?
I'm haunted by a quote from a holocaust survivor who said that he would have done things differently (presumably fled early) if he'd "had the soul of a poet". Hindsight is 20/20, but predicting from group emotional trends is sometimes part of what's necessary.