Will_Sawin comments on The Curve of Capability - Less Wrong

18 Post author: rwallace 04 November 2010 08:22PM

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Comment author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 04 November 2010 09:10:33PM 22 points [-]

And hardware overhang (faster computers developed before general cognitive algorithms, first AGI taking over all the supercomputers on the Internet) and fast infrastructure (molecular nanotechnology) and many other inconvenient ideas.

Also if you strip away the talk about "imbalance" what it works out to is that there's a self-contained functioning creature, the chimpanzee, and natural selection burps into it a percentage more complexity and quadruple the computing power, and it makes a huge jump in capability. Nothing is offered to support the assertion that this is the only such jump which exists, except the bare assertion itself. Chimpanzees were not "lopsided", they were complete packages designed for an environment; it turned out there were things that could be done which created a huge increase in optimization power (calling this "symbolic processing" assumes a particular theory of mind, and I think it is mistaken) and perhaps there are yet more things like that, such as, oh, say, self-modification of code.

Comment author: Will_Sawin 05 November 2010 03:00:18AM 3 points [-]

What's clearly fundamental about the human/chimpanzee advantage, the thing that made us go FOOM and take over the world, is that we can, extremely efficiently, share knowledge. This is not as good as fusing all our brains into a giant brain, but it's much much better than just having a brain.

This analysis possibly suggests that "taking over the world's computing resources" is the most likely FOOM, because it is similar to the past FOOM, but that is weak evidence.