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wedrifid comments on The Curve of Capability - Less Wrong
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No indeed, they very strongly promote belief in AI foom - that's why I bought into that belief system for a while, because if true, it would make me a potential superhero.
Nope, it's exactly in the core of my expertise. Not that I'm expecting you to believe my conclusions for that reason.
When I believed in foom, I was working on Friendly AI. Now that I no longer believe that, I've reluctantly accepted human level AI in the near future is not possible, and I'm working on smarter tool AI instead - well short of human equivalence, but hopefully, with enough persistence and luck, better than what we have today.
That is what falsifiability refers to, yes.
My theory makes the prediction that even when recursive self-improvement is used, the results will be within the curve of capability, and will not produce more than a steady exponential rate of improvement.
Are you saying your theory makes no other predictions than this?
You are not an expert on recursive self improvement, as it relates to AGI or the phenomenon in general.
In fairness, I'm not sure anyone is really an expert on this (although this doesn't detract from your point at all.)
You are right, and I would certainly not expect anyone to have such expertise for me to take their thoughts seriously. I am simply wary of Economists (Robin) or AGI creator hopefuls claiming that their expertise should be deferred to (only relevant here as a hypothetical pseudo-claim). Professions will naturally try to claim more territory than would be objectively appropriate. This isn't because the professionals are actively deceptive but rather because it is the natural outcome of tribal instincts. Lets face it - intellectual disciplines and fields of expertise are mostly about pissing on trees with but with better hygiene.